AGP Executive Report

Kyiv Under Fresh Threats: Russia escalated its rhetoric after one of its biggest recent barrages, warning it will carry out “systematic strikes” on Kyiv’s defense industry and “decision-making centers,” while urging foreigners and diplomats to leave the capital “as soon as possible.” Diplomatic Pushback: The EU mission’s Katarína Mathernová called Moscow’s warnings “hypocrisy” and said, “The EU is not going anywhere,” as Ukraine’s foreign minister urged allies not to yield to “blackmail.” US-Russia Call: Russia’s Lavrov told US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to evacuate US diplomats and citizens, but no mass departures from Kyiv were publicly confirmed. Air War Continues: Ukraine reported overnight drone and missile attacks, with air defenses neutralizing most drones and impacts recorded across multiple regions, alongside power outages in several areas. Ukraine Strikes Back: Satellite imagery showed damage to fuel tanks at Russia’s Grushovaya oil depot near Novorossiysk after Ukrainian drone hits. Trade & Info Front: Ukraine launched an anti-dumping probe into coated steel imports, while Interfax-Ukraine is set to host briefings on Russian disinformation and a health-center reorganization.

Kyiv Under Fresh Threat: Russia escalated its rhetoric after a weekend barrage that killed at least four and injured dozens, warning it will launch “systematic” strikes on Kyiv’s military-linked sites and “decision-making centers,” and urging foreigners to leave the city. Diplomatic Pressure: Russian FM Sergei Lavrov told U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to evacuate American diplomats and citizens; the EU signaled it will stay in Kyiv anyway. Human Toll in the East: In Moscow-controlled Donetsk, Ukrainian attacks were blamed for at least seven deaths, including two minors, and 15 injuries. Partisan Disruption: The Atesh movement claimed it disabled Russian air-defense coordination near Novorossiysk ahead of a Ukrainian strike on a major oil depot. War’s Wider Damage: Kyiv’s cultural sites took another hit, with officials reporting major losses at the Chornobyl Museum. Belarus Watch: Exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya arrived in Kyiv as concerns grow that Minsk could deepen support for Russia. Frontline Reality: Ukraine also reported strikes inside Russia, including on fuel and ammunition sites in Bryansk.

Kyiv Under Fire: Russia’s May 24 barrage hit the capital with hypersonic Oreshnik plus missiles and drones, killing 4 and injuring 69 across Ukraine; Kyiv alone saw about 300 damaged sites, nearly 150 homes hit, and 87 wounded as rescue teams kept working in Shevchenkivskyi and Podilskyi. Air Defense Push: Zelensky demanded more anti-aircraft protection after the attack, while Ukraine reported intercepting 246 of 262 drones in the latest wave. Belarus Tensions: Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya arrived in Kyiv and blamed the Lukashenko regime for enabling attacks from Belarusian territory. Health Hit: The WHO office in Kyiv was damaged by strike debris, with WHO chief Tedros calling for a ceasefire. EU Politics: Ukraine is revising its 2026–2030 anti-corruption strategy, cutting some EU commitments amid accession pressure. Aid Gridlock: In the US, Nebraska’s Don Bacon is pushing the “Ukraine Support Act” toward a House vote.

Oreshnik Shockwave on Kyiv: Russia launched one of the heaviest barrages of the war, hitting Kyiv and nearby areas with 600 drones and 90 missiles, including the nuclear-capable hypersonic Oreshnik for the third time since the full-scale invasion; four people were killed and more than 80 injured, with damage reported across homes, schools, and cultural sites, while air defenses intercepted 549 drones and 55 missiles. Diplomatic Fallout: European leaders condemned the strike as reckless escalation, and the WHO said debris damaged its Kyiv offices. Ukraine Strikes Back: Ukraine’s SBU said drones hit an oil pumping dispatch station in Russia’s Vladimir region. Human Cost, Up Close: Ukrainian tennis star Marta Kostyuk won at the French Open after revealing a missile hit about 100 meters from her parents’ home in Kyiv hours earlier. War’s Wider Reach: A Kurdish fighter serving in Russia warned recruits that promises of money and citizenship often don’t deliver.

Kyiv Under Hypersonic Shock: Russia hit the Ukrainian capital early Sunday with one of its biggest combined missile-and-drone barrages, using the hypersonic Oreshnik ballistic missile against Bila Tserkva, while also firing 90 missiles and 600 drones; Kyiv’s air defenses reportedly stopped most targets, but strikes still damaged homes, schools, markets and offices across nearly every district, with casualties rising to at least 4 dead and dozens injured (69 reported in Kyiv at one point). Cultural Sites Hit: The National Art Museum, Philharmonic and Opera House were damaged in the same wave, underscoring how the attack spread beyond military targets. Nuclear Brinkmanship Row: EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and others condemned the move as reckless nuclear brinkmanship, as NATO scrambled warplanes and Kyiv warned more launches were possible. Diplomatic Push: Zelensky told EU leaders it’s time to start Ukraine’s accession process, calling associate membership “unfair” because it would leave Ukraine “voiceless.” Counter-PsyOps Training: NATO’s JATEC is set to run training next week on countering Russian psychological operations, using a digital simulation to test how influence campaigns work.

Oreshnik Alert, Kyiv on edge: Ukraine’s President Zelensky and the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv warned Saturday that Russia may be preparing a major combined strike, with Zelensky citing intelligence about an Oreshnik missile and signs of attacks involving multiple weapon types, including toward Kyiv—followed by fresh drone and missile activity reported across the country. Luhansk dorm strike fallout: Russia says a Ukrainian drone attack hit a student dormitory in Starobilsk, killing at least 18; Ukraine denies civilian targeting, saying it struck a military drone unit, as the UN Security Council held a heated emergency session. Energy hit: Ukrainian drones reportedly sparked a fire at Russia’s Sheskharis oil terminal/depot in Novorossiysk, with local officials citing drone debris. Accountability at home: Kyiv police served notices over an alleged medical-supplies embezzlement scheme worth over UAH 4.1 million. Foreign volunteers, personal losses: The UK confirmed the death of a British national killed in action in Ukraine, warning of high risks for Britons fighting there. Tech meets training: A Ukrainian drone training center is using a modified GTA 5 setup to help operators practice intercepting drones.

Long-Range Strike: Zelenskyy says Ukraine has halted Russia’s Metafrax Chemicals in Perm Krai, calling it a major long-range sanction after products tied to drones and missile engines. Drone War: Ukraine’s Air Force reports shooting down 102 of 124 Russian drones overnight, with strikes recorded at nine locations. Occupied Luhansk Fallout: Russia claims a drone attack hit a student dormitory in Starobilsk, killing 10 and injuring dozens, while Kyiv denies targeting civilians and says it struck an elite drone command unit; Putin vows retaliation. Energy Pressure: A Ukrainian drone attack sparked a fire at Russia’s Novorossiysk oil depot, with local officials blaming falling debris. EU Politics: Zelenskyy tells EU leaders Germany’s “associate” membership idea is unfair because Ukraine would be voiceless, as accession talks are debated. Aid Friction: Bipartisan U.S. senators press Defense Secretary Hegseth to release delayed Ukraine security funding.

Drone War Escalation: Russia says a Ukrainian drone hit a student dorm in Starobilsk, killing six and wounding dozens; Putin ordered retaliation options, while Ukraine’s General Staff insists it struck the “Rubikon” unit’s headquarters and calls Moscow’s claims “manipulative information.” Energy Shock in Kyiv: After a Russian attack, Kyiv reported 5,000+ homes without power and thousands without heating in minus-14C weather. Long-Range Pressure: Zelensky says Ukraine struck Russia’s Yaroslavl oil refinery and reports stronger frontline momentum, while Ukraine’s General Staff lists overnight hits on Russian command posts, air defenses, ammo depots, and personnel. Diplomacy vs. Delay: Zelensky expects new U.S. proposals on peace-talk formats; meanwhile, bipartisan U.S. senators push back on Pentagon delays in a $600m Ukraine aid package. EU Accession Push: Ukraine insists all six EU negotiation clusters should open in June, saying Hungary’s political obstacle has eased. Regional Fallout: Hungary reimposed a ban on Ukrainian agricultural imports and reversed its plan to leave the ICC.

Air Defense Boost: The U.S. approved a potential $108.1M Hawk support package for Ukraine, covering launcher trailer gear, major upgrades, spare parts, repairs, and logistics to keep FrankenSAM Hawk systems running. Long-Range Pressure: Kyiv says its drones hit Russian oil refining and export assets again, including the Yaroslavl refinery (~700 km), as Zelenskyy frames the campaign as “bringing the war home.” Energy Fallout: Reuters reports Russia’s fourth-largest refinery (Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez in Kstovo) partially shut down after a Ukrainian strike, cutting output from a key processing unit. Frontline Reality: Russia launched 124 drones overnight; Ukraine says it intercepted 115, with strikes causing casualties in Dnipro and other areas. Diplomacy Reset: Ukraine’s FM Andrii Sybiha met Hungary’s FM Anita Orbán in Sweden, agreeing on a second round of minority-issues talks next week. Occupied-Territory Claims: Kremlin-backed officials call a Ukrainian drone strike on a college in Starobelsk (LPR) a “monstrous crime,” citing injuries and debris-clearing.

Long-Range Oil Pressure: Ukrainian drones hit the Syzran oil refinery deep inside Russia, sparking a major fire and black smoke; Zelenskyy called it another “long-range sanction” on the oil industry, while Russia’s Samara governor reported deaths but didn’t confirm the target. Border Security: Ukraine rolled out “unprecedented” enhanced security measures across northern regions bordering Belarus, deploying SSU, police, National Guard, and border forces to stop sabotage and reconnaissance. FSB Blow on the Arabat Spit: Drones struck an FSB headquarters near Henichesk, destroying multiple buildings and a Pantsir system, with Zelenskyy citing about a hundred Russian losses. Air Defense Scaling: Ukraine says it’s developing low-cost interceptor missiles to counter Shahed-type drones and is pushing faster, cheaper production. EU Politics: Germany’s Merz floated an “associate member” EU status for Ukraine without voting rights, drawing pushback from Slovakia’s Fico. Baltics Tensions: Russia warned Latvia of “appropriate” retaliation over alleged drone use from its territory as NATO scrambles jets and Baltic leaders demand explanations.

Long-Range Strikes: Ukraine says drones hit the Syzran oil refinery deep inside Russia, sparking major smoke after another refinery attack—while Russia reports drone deaths and injuries in the same region. Deep-Strike Losses: Ukraine also claims it wiped out 65 “Akhmat” cadets in a strike on a Russian drone training and production hub in occupied Donetsk. EU Politics: Germany’s Merz is pushing an “associate member” EU status for Ukraine—participation without voting—plus a separate push to speed up Moldova and Western Balkans integration. Air-Defense Pressure: Russia fired an Iskander-M missile and 116 drones overnight; Ukraine says 109 drones were intercepted and debris hit multiple sites. Northern Security: Ukraine’s SBU says it’s running expanded counter-sabotage and counterintelligence measures across northern regions bordering Russia and Belarus. Tech Race: Fedorov says Ukraine is testing cheaper missiles to knock down Shaheds and aims to scale production for autumn-winter. Diplomatic Noise: Russia says Zelenskiy wants escalation; Ukraine says it’s ready to resume meaningful trilateral talks with the US if partners follow through.

Northern Threat Watch: Zelenskyy says Ukraine will reinforce defenses in the Chernihiv–Kyiv direction and step up diplomatic pressure on Belarus after intelligence points to five possible Russian scenarios for a new push from the north. Deep Strikes & Air Defense: Ukraine reports long-range drone hits on Russian oil infrastructure, including a confirmed strike near Kstovo, while officials say air defenses downed most drones in a daytime attack. Energy Pressure: Reuters reports Ukrainian strikes have forced nearly all major central Russian refineries to halt or cut output, squeezing Moscow’s fuel supply and budget. Diplomacy & Money: The EU and Kyiv finalized a €3.2bn budget support tranche, and Naftogaz won Kazakhstan court approval to enforce a $1.4bn Gazprom debt. Sanctions Friction: The UK faced fresh backlash after easing parts of Russian oil sanctions; Zelenskyy and Downing Street tried to reassure Kyiv it won’t weaken pressure. Baltics Tensions: A NATO fighter jet shot down a Ukrainian drone over Estonia, prompting apologies and renewed debate over targeting and NATO airspace safety. Information War: Ukraine’s intelligence says Russia ordered a coordinated disinformation push after its spring offensive stalled, including attacks on mobilization and Zelenskyy.

Nuclear deterrence warning: NATO chief Mark Rutte said the consequences would be “devastating” if Russia uses nuclear weapons, while allies keep watching Moscow’s nuclear drills. Ukraine-NATO coordination: Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky told NATO partners the security situation demands “maximum unity” and speed, highlighting Ukraine’s active defense and deep-strike drone pressure. Diplomacy with Hungary: Kyiv and Budapest launched expert-level consultations focused on bilateral ties, minority rights, and EU accession, with a follow-up meeting set at NATO’s Sweden gathering. Drone tactics evolve: Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces said it has fitted long-range exploding drones with rocket pods to hit air-defense crews and suppress systems in Russia’s rear. Air war update: Ukraine reported shooting down 131 of 154 UAVs overnight, plus a ballistic missile and strike UAVs hitting 20 locations. Frontline losses: Ukraine’s General Staff said Russia lost about 920 troops in the past day, with heavy equipment losses also reported. Serbia ties: Serbian business leaders said Ukrainian firms in Serbia have surged and trade is back near 2021 levels, as both sides prepare further free-trade talks. Economy planning: Ukraine’s government is advancing a new “Economy of the Future” strategy with partners, aiming for faster growth and investment.

Baltic Drone Tensions: A Romanian jet shot down what was believed to be a Ukrainian drone over Estonia, as Estonia and Latvia rejected Russian claims they were allowing drone launches from their territory and Ukraine apologized for “unintended incidents.” Frontline Momentum: Syrskyi says Ukrainian offensive actions surpassed Russian attacks for the first time, with Pokrovsk the main pressure point as Russia concentrates huge manpower. Moscow Under Pressure: Ukraine’s long-range drone push is again in focus after reports of a major strike on Moscow earlier this week, while Russia warns NATO won’t shield the Baltics if drones are launched from their soil. Nuclear Warning: At the UN Security Council, Ukraine urged nuclear powers not to ignore Russia-Belarus nuclear drills and called for a new sanctions regime targeting Russia’s nuclear arsenal. China’s Shadow Role: Reuters reports China secretly trained around 200 Russian soldiers in 2025, including drone warfare, raising new questions about Beijing’s neutrality. Energy Diplomacy: Moldova’s FM told a Berlin panel that European cooperation is key to regional energy security, pointing to Moldova’s push to cut Russian gas dependence.

Nuclear Shadow Over the War: Russia has kicked off a three-day nuclear drills campaign (May 19-21) involving 65,000+ troops and coordination with Belarus, as Ukraine steps up drone pressure and the UN Security Council meets over the escalation. Ukraine’s Strike Momentum: Kyiv says it shot down 180 of 209 drones overnight and reports heavy Russian losses (1,140 troops and 78 artillery systems in a day), while new homegrown weapons move closer to mass use: Ukraine’s first domestically produced guided glide bomb “Vyrivniuvach” is reportedly combat-ready and a new FP-7.x interceptor is nearing full local production. Aid and Accountability Pressure: The Pentagon says the US opened 56 anti-corruption investigations into Ukraine aid in Q1, and warns $3.92B in military funding won’t be delivered due to an expired deadline. Diplomacy and Deterrence: Xi told Trump Putin “might end up regretting” the invasion, and Ukraine’s EU track advances with the opening of negotiating clusters—while Russia and Belarus keep nuclear signaling. Frontline Reality: Reports also highlight strikes hitting Ukraine’s Danube port area (Izmail) and continued attacks across multiple regions.

Drone Pressure on Russia: Ukraine launched a major drone wave, with officials saying 500 drones were used in the latest push and that Kyiv is protecting 1,170+ km of frontline logistics routes from FPV attacks by doubling anti-drone road defenses. Moscow Pushback: Russia claims it intercepted hundreds of drones and reported deaths and damage around the capital region. Deep-Strike Tech: Ukraine moved its first homegrown 250 kg glide bomb (“Vyrivniuvach”) toward combat use, while Kyiv also highlighted new training tools to counter FPV threats. China Shipping Hit: Drones struck a Chinese-owned cargo vessel near Odesa ahead of Putin’s Beijing trip with Xi. Belarus Nuclear Escalation: Belarus began snap nuclear drills with Russia, drawing sharp Kyiv condemnation. Diplomacy & Aid: Hungary’s new government signaled technical talks on EU accession and minority rights, while the US House pushed for a floor vote on additional Ukraine aid. Money Crunch: Ukraine says it needs $95B for 2026–27, with over half secured, as Zelenskyy cites internal Russian documents showing economic strain.